McCain, Obama and Clinton Favorability

A little interesting movement in views of the candidates has taken place since the end of the primaries in June. All three candidates, McCain, Obama and Clinton, have seen rises in their favorable ratings and an initial decline in unfavorable views though with a slight upturn recently. McCain and Obama are enjoying essentially identical ratings, with 60% favorable and only 35% unfavorable. Even after a significant amount of negative portrayals of him in RNC and McCain ads, Obama's rating has risen over the summer, and so has McCain's. (According to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which monitored and coded all 100,000 ad airings in June and July, one third of McCain's ads contained negative information about Obama and 100% of RNC ads were negative. In the same two months, 10% of Obama's ads mentioned McCain.)

Whatever happens after the conventions, both candidates enjoy an enviable standing with voters as attractive figures instead of a pair of lesser evils. The fall capaign may alter this, but even after a hard fought primary season the nominees remain attractive figures.

Meanwhile, Senator Clinton has also enjoyed an upturn in favorable ratings and a decline in unfavorable ratings since the end of the primary season. While improved, Clinton remains a more polarizing figure than either McCain or Obama, with slightly lower favorable but noticeably higher negative ratings.

Senator Clinton is far more popular among Democrats than among either Independents or (especially) Republicans. In that sense, her speech to the Democratic Convention last night was an example of speaking primarily to the party and her supporters, rather than to the broader public. The contast between former Virginia governor and now Senate candidate Mark Warner's speech and Clinton's is a good example of this difference. Warner stressed unifying themes and appeals across political groups, which was greated warmly but which fell short of electrifying the Democratic delegates. In contrast, Clinton played to the party and produced a predictably enthusiastic response within the DNC convention hall. Conventions contain both elements. Monday, the party celebrated Sen. Kennedy's life and family legacy, primarily an inside the family affair, perhaps touching some independents but not likely to attract Republicans. In contrast Michelle Obama's speech could have easily been given at the Republican convention, with its themes of family, hard work, pulling oneself up from working class circumstances. Hers was a speech designed to reach out beyond the party.

The one remaining question from the Clinton speech is whether her supporters also resepect her enough to follow her lead. For Clinton to be a power in the party includes the requirement that she be able to deliver her supporters for Obama. If any significant number of her supporters refuse to be delivered, they reduce her status as a result. This is hard to judge from the cable news coverage, who can easily find individual delegates willing to say they are unpersuaded. But what effect the Clinton speech has with her supporters outside the convention hall will be critical.

Hillary's image, 1993-2006

(Click on figure for a larger view.)

Hillary Rodham Clinton's public image is very much in the news with this week's Time cover story, so let's take a quick look at one of the longer running public figures. Sen. Clinton is an unusual public figure both in terms of the length of the time series of data we have on her, and in her changing roles in politics. These changes stand out pretty clearly in her favorability ratings above.

After a typically positive view of the new first lady, favorability fell quite a bit as Sen. Clinton took on a policy role (which failed) with the health care reform initiative in 1993-94. Her favorability actually declined a bit more by the end of 1995, before starting a sustained recovery through out 1996 and 1997.

The amazing Monica Lewinsky scandal gave her further boosts in favorability, in contrast with views of her husband. This trend peaked just as the impeachment trial ended.

As Sen. Clinton turned to running for the Senate from New York, public perception again changed from the positive views of 1998 to a balance more typical of political office seekers in 1999 and especially 2000. Now a candidate in her own right, favorability shifted from around 65% to slightly over 50% as she ran for office. For the most part, favorability towards Sen. Clinton has remained close to the 50% mark, with some recent rises in 2005 and most recently in 2006 some modest decline.

Sen. Clinton is often described as an intensly polarizing figure, and there is some evidence for this in the levels of her "unfavorable" ratings. These rose sharply in 1993-94 as she took on non-traditional policy roles while first lady. But having reached 40% unfavorable by 1995, they have rarely dropped below that. Only during the Lewinsky scandal did unfavorable drop to around 30%. Since then it has remained in the ball park of 40%, but at times rising to around 45%. While not a measure of the intensity of these feelings, the data certainly show that Sen. Clinton has been viewed unfavorably by a consistent 40% of the population for the last six years. This of course is one of the difficulties she faces in a race for national office.

Those national favorability numbers set the stage for a possible run for the White House in 2008. But how has she fared in the state she represents in the Senate, New York? Below are job approval figures from samples of New York state since she became Senator.
























Here Sen. Clinton's success at winning over voters is clear. After initially withholding judgement, New Yorkers have come to approve of her handling of her job as Senator by better than 2-1 margins. The rise has been slow but steady until 2005, when approval peaked at just over 60%. Since then there has been some fall off of approval, to about 55%.

As with her unfavorable ratings, there is a steady contingent of about 30% of New Yorkers who have consistently disapproved of the her handling of her job. This has varied by as much as 8 points, but represents a stable resevoir of opposition.

Given that Sen. Clinton seems to be coasting to reelection, the decline in approval is worth watching. Is that due to presidential ambitions hurting her at home, or is it her support for the war or is it simply renewed partisanship as the Senate election draws nearer? And how will a big win in November translate into both state and national perceptions of Sen. Clinton as she considers a 2008 bid for the White House? Ahhh.. wait for more data.


Click here to go to Table of Contents