Now that you can play with the sensitivity of the trend estimate on our interactive charts at Pollster.com, the need for my sensitivity comparisons is somewhat less. But, it is interesting to see that just now the sensitivity used in our national trends makes very little practical difference.
My pals, "Ready-Red" and "Old-Blue" are in good agreement on both the magnitude of the Obama surge in the last three weeks, and the current standing of about a 7 to 7.5 point Obama lead.
Red had a moment of indecision last week when a couple of polls showed McCain ahead, but after barking in that direction, Red came back to Old Blue in seeing continued upward movement for Obama. You gotta love Red for his sensitive nose, but sometimes it distracts him from the big picture.
So here is a question to ponder. How much more upward lift can there be for Obama? He's already well beyond his previous best. Does anyone believe he really can hold a 10 point lead through the election? If not, then we should see some flattening out in the next few days, regardless of the debates.
5 comments:
This one is going to come down to the wire for sure. Neither candidate is an "obvious" winner and both have very serious issues to contend with.
I think the real question is where will the economy be in on election day and what news will come from the middle east.
If the economy is still the main issue come November, Obama may be able to pull through, but if something crazy happens... like Bin Laden is captured or the economy suddenly makes a huge comeback we could very well see McCain win.
In the end I think this is Obama's election to lose, and if he does blame Biden... because people like me who just cannot stand that man!
ps... check out my blog
hopesdreamsandhiccups.blogspot.com
I will go out on a limb Professor Franklin --I say that if the debates are even slightly in Obama's favor, and Ms. Sarah keeps dishing up the mud, I am calling for 10.3% lead by Oct.14.
You heard it here first, and if it does flatten out as you predict, I will deny any and all previous statements. ~.^
Thanks for the great site.
Bobby McGill
http://idlewordship.com
As one Wash Post op-ed commenter said, the McPalin campaign has gone surreal. As long as McCain continues his erratic, tactic-driven, strategy-free campaign, it's hard to see any major drop in the polls.
Of more interest are the trends in state polling, which show a steady rise for Obama.
It's true that the times are so bizarre that prediction is virtually impossible, but it's hard to see how McPalin can pull this one out.
As always, great site...a must visit.
Nice Post. Thanks for sharing this information with us.
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