Monday, October 06, 2008

National Sensitivity Comparison

Now that you can play with the sensitivity of the trend estimate on our interactive charts at, the need for my sensitivity comparisons is somewhat less. But, it is interesting to see that just now the sensitivity used in our national trends makes very little practical difference.

My pals, "Ready-Red" and "Old-Blue" are in good agreement on both the magnitude of the Obama surge in the last three weeks, and the current standing of about a 7 to 7.5 point Obama lead.

Red had a moment of indecision last week when a couple of polls showed McCain ahead, but after barking in that direction, Red came back to Old Blue in seeing continued upward movement for Obama. You gotta love Red for his sensitive nose, but sometimes it distracts him from the big picture.

So here is a question to ponder. How much more upward lift can there be for Obama? He's already well beyond his previous best. Does anyone believe he really can hold a 10 point lead through the election? If not, then we should see some flattening out in the next few days, regardless of the debates.