The 2008 campaign had not seen a really big move in preferences until the financial crisis hit three weeks ago today. Since that time, the Obama-McCain margin has shifted almost 9 points in Obama's favor, converting a small McCain lead into a substantial Obama advantage.
This swing reversed the gains McCain made with the Republican convention and the week after during which he picked up about 4 points and took the lead for the first time since March.
I wrote earlier that we had not seen a move in 2008 as large as ones we saw in both 2000 and 2004. That is no longer true of 2004, though the current run is not yet as large as the one Gore mounted in 2000.
The Bush counter-assault in 2000, after Gore's surge, was almost eight points, and began at almost the same point in the campaign, about 57 days out.
Voters are making up their minds at about the same rate as they did in 2000. If this year follows that pattern, look for some serious decision making over the next two weeks.
3 comments:
Fascinating. It's hard to imagine anything could reverse this trend this close to Election Day but I suppose anything is possible.
Of course there's always the chance that polls are wrong (as in the Bradley Effect) but I don't think we're seeing that.
If anything, I suspect that polls underreport Obama's support since so many young people (and, come to think of it, poor people too) are without landline phones.
What do you think?
The sharp dip in (dem - rep advantage) followed by the almost equally sharp and more sustained rise is fascinating. The dip seems to be a response to Palin's choice by the Republican base, and the rise a repudiation of Republican style economics (in response to the financial crisis) by independents and undecided Democrats. The second effect is larger than the first. The question is at what level will it be sustained over the next four weeks?
Can you update this chart as of Oct 24 or the end of this week???
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