Friday, March 30, 2007

Bush Approval: Five new polls, Trend at 33.6%

Five new polls have arrived. Fox (3/27-28/07) has approval at 33%, disapproval at 61%. Time (3/23-26/07) is at 33%/60%. Gallup/USAToday (3/23-25/07) is 34%/62%. Pew (3/21-25/07) has it 33%/58%. And Democracy Corps (3/20-25/07) is at 37%/58%. The Democracy Corps samples likely voters and has a consistently positive house effect for presidential approval. With these five new polls my approval trend estimate stands at 33.6%.

Based on the sensitivity analysis below, the variability in the trend estimate has remained between 33% and 35% approval over the last 20 polls, with only a slight negative trend. So far, at least, there is little evidence that the Gonzalez/prosecutor hearings are making a substantial impact on presidential approval. With further hearings, and a looming showdown over the war funding bill/veto, things could change with new developments in DC. More on that latter.