Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Bush Approval: 3 New Polls; Trend at 32.5%

August was a slow month for polling generally, but we've had a nice new surge of September polling, including Presidential approval.

The three new polls are ABC/WP taken 9/4-7/07 which finds approval at 33%, disapproval at 64%, CBS/NYT done 9/4-8/07 with approval at 30%, disapproval at 64% and Gallup/USAToday from 9/7-8/07 getting approval at 33% and disapproval at 62%. A nicely consistent bunching of results.

The trend estimate stands at 32.5%, an estimate that has been pretty steady over recent polling. The upward movement of approval since June continues to be apparent, though there has been some flattening of recent estimates, suggesting the increase may have plateaued around the 32%-33% range. (See the last dozen or so estimates (red dots) in the final plot below.)

No recent polls are close to outlier status.