Saturday, December 29, 2007

Sensitive Trends Update: IA, NH, SC and US

Here is an update comparing the standard "blue line" estimate of poll trends with the more sensitive "red line", and a simple 5 poll moving average for comparison.

I talked at length about these estimators and issues related to them in an earlier post here, so won't comment further. See the earlier post for details.

These data include polls released through December 29, with ARG's 12/26-28, Research2000's 12/26-27, Strategic Visions 12/26-27 and LATimes/Bloomberg's 12/20-23,26 polling as the latest from Iowa.