Monday, May 05, 2008

NC and IN Sensitivity Update

As we close in on tomorrow's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the "standard" and "sensitive" trend estimates have largely converged.

In North Carolina the standard estimator puts Obama at 50.1% and Clinton at 41.5%. The sensitive estimator has it Obama 49.5% and Clinton 42.2%. Or, a margin in the standard trend of +8.6 for Obama vs +7.3 in the sensitive estimate.

In Indiana, the standard estimator puts Clinton up 49.5% to 43.3% for Obama. Switching to the sensitive estimator makes it Clinton 51.2% to Obama's 43.5%. Or a Clinton advantage of 6.2% for the standard estimator versus 7.7% for the sensitive one.

Either way the polls are seeing a split decision tomorrow. Anything else will be a very interesting surprise.