I'm between planes so no time for a full post, but the generic ballot that was trending slightly down two weeks ago is now at least flat and perhaps very slightly rising. Too soon to tell what the real effect of the Foley affair will be, but certainly the trend has shifted from down to flat. I'll post more at the next delayed flight (which could be soon.)
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An aspect of the last few national polls that's not getting much attention is that self-identified Democrats are comprising an increasing percentage of the samples relative to other baselines.
According to Rasmussen's average of party ID figures from the previous 90 days, self-identified Democrats currently outnumber Republicans by 4.7 percent.
However, as I document on my sample-weighting website, the most recent polls (by outfits other than Rasmussen) are consistently showing a 6-8 percent edge for Democrats over Republicans in sample composition.
http://www.hs.ttu.edu/hdfs3390/weighting.htm
This could easily be just a transient reaction to Foley-gate, Iraq, the Woodward book, etc. Republican voters could be demoralized over these events at the moment, perhaps making them less willing to participate in polls. If so, the Generic Congressional Ballot should tighten by at least a few points in coming weeks as turned-off Republicans re-engage in the political process.
On the other hand, perhaps the increasing representation of Democrats in the polls is indicative of a more enduring trend in energy levels heading into November.
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