(This is a BIG graphic. Click once or twice for full resolution.)
This post tracks the national Republican vs. Democrat trial heats for the 2008 presidential election. It is updated in place so a link to this page will always come to the most recently updated trial heat data.
Warning note: Recent polling has given most attention to pairings of Giuliani or Thompson against Clinton or Obama. Romney and especially McCain have been less likely to be included in a test. Likewise Edwards has often been omitted from trail heat questions. This means that the current estimate for McCain vs. Edwards, for example, is heavily influenced by the single recent poll that tested that pairing. When using these charts, look to see that the latest estimates are based on several recent polls. If not, then the results will primarily reflect just the single most recent result. That does not mean the trend estimate is wrong, just that it is based on less data than we usually would like to have.
There is a link to this page from the Trial Heat thumbnail in the right-hand column.
The trend line is only estimated and plotted when there are at least 8 data points to fit. If there are fewer, then only the points are plotted. The estimated candidate support in the figure heading is the latest trend estimate if there are 8 or more polls. Otherwise it is the median of the polls that are available.
The "latest poll" can vary across pairs of candidates because not all polls ask about all pairs.
Polling has avoided trial heats among the least known candidates so far. More will be added as data become available.
I'll avoid commentary here, where the point is just the display of the data. For commentary and other posts on the 2008 Presidential race, click on the "Pres08" label below or on the link in the right column of the page under "2008 Trial Heats".
4 comments:
From the polling results to date, it sure looks like the next American presidential election is going to be decided by which party holds their nominating convention first - doesn't it?
Depending on which party choses first, the other then can pick the candidate with the best prospect of beating them - regardless of qualifications or fitness for the task.
That "whirrrrrrr" you hear is the "Founding Fathers" spinning in their graves.
The only problem with "universal curmudgeon's" suggestion is that the conventions have not chosen the candidates in, what, around 40 years?
MSSm I am shocked - SHOCKED! I say - to see you suggesting that the grand panoplay of the American political process could even remotely be compared to a sham. Of course the conventions "chose" the candidates. Of course they really only get to "chose" from a list that someone else has already approved.
Maybe I'm reading more into the polls than I should at this early date, but it sure looks like ANY of the top three Democrat "potential candidates" can beat ALL of the Republican "potential candidates".
This, of course, bodes well for the Republicans in the 2012 Presidential Elections since they seem to have a running start at being able to blame everything that happens in Iraq on the Democrats.
I can see the 2012 campaign slogan now "It's all Clinton's fault - BOTH of them.".
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