Sunday, July 08, 2007

Bush Approval: Newsweek 26%, Trend 27.9%

A Newsweek poll taken 7/2-3/07 finds approval of President Bush at 26%, disapproval at 65%, unchanged from Newsweek's previous poll done 6/18-19. With the addition of the Newsweek poll, the trend estimate stands at 27.9%.

This Newsweek poll was completed on the day the commutation of Scooter Libby's prison sentence was announced, so most respondents were interviewed before that news broke. With the 4th of July holiday interrupting most polling operations, new approval ratings taken entirely after the commutation will only become available this coming week.

Four of the six most recent polls (including two by Newsweek) are typically below trend, with two tending to fall above trend. It will be revealing to see some new polls from those with typically positive "house effects". While those could be as high as 33%, given my current trend estimate, we should expect Gallup to fall between 29% and 31%, given current trends and Gallup's typical house effect. ABC/WP who hasn't been heard from in a while might be expected at 29-32. It will be revealing if either comes in below (or more surprisingly, above) those ranges.

The current Newsweek poll is 1.9 points below trend, well within the range of normal variation. (There are two Newsweek polls in the residual plot below, with the lower Newsweek being the earlier June poll, though it too is well within normal limits.)

The rest of the diagnostics continue to support a continuing decline in support since late April. The Libby commutation, or the immigration bill's defeat, might have shifted the trend-- but which way? Arguments have been made both ways. We need a number of new post-Libby polls to detect whatever effect there may have been. Stay tuned.