Two new polls find higher approval ratings of President Bush than last week, and both polls are above trend, lending more support for the suggestion I made here last week that we may be seeing a leveling off of the recent decline in Bush approval.
Gallup's new poll, taken 7/12-15/07 found approval at 31%, disapproval at 63%. A Zogby/Reuter's poll conducted 7/12-14/07 has approval at 34%, disapproval at 66%.
With the addition of these polls, the trend estimator is now 29.1%. More importantly the evidence of a change in trend, while still not conclusive, is beginning to be visible even with the standard, stable blue line estimate. The blue trend estimate now shows just a bit of a bend in recent estimates-- what had been declining at a constant rate since April now suggests a change. The more sensitive, but easily confused, red estimator has clearly taken an upward tick. While red is often fooled, and we should not be justified in claiming clear evidence for a turnaround, the indications are now in that direction for the first time in four months.
With only the latest four polls showing this move up, we should be cautious. Usually it takes about 12 consistent polls to be confident of a change in trend. But if we are reading early tea leaves, they suggest that the President's recent precipitous decline may be stabilizing.
4 comments:
That term – stabilizing" – seems ambiguous. You could mean either leveling off, or solidifying a downward trend. I believe you mean the former.
Anon- Thanks-- I've changed the link to be more clear.
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This doesn't make complete sense to me. Don't the stastistical rules change as you start to reach the absolute bottom of a trendline? I mean, in what sense is this decline "leveling off" - wouldn't it make more sense to say that "it can't get any lower than this"?
These seem to be pretty much the lowest numbers of any President in history - Nixon-resignation-quality numbers. He could probably break 25% if he murdered Harry Reid on national television, but otherwise, he's bottomed out.
Just my 2 cents - and a sincere question.
There seems to be quite a bit of well intentioned, though wishful, thinking that the declining trend has stabilized. Frank Newport of Gallup concedes that the 2-point differential in their last two polls is not statistically significant. He surmises, nevertheless, that Bush's standing in the eyes of the public is not on a relentless decline. If it takes twelve polls to establish a trend, why don't we withhold judgment till we get those tweleve polls?
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