Thursday, November 08, 2007

Bush Approval: Trend 32.6%

New polls: Marist/WNBC (10/29-11/1/07) Approve 34%, disapprove 58%; Gallup (11/2-4/07) approve 31%, disapprove 64%; NBC/WSJ (11/1-5/07)approve 31%, disapprove 63%.

With these new polls, the trend estimate moves to 32.6%. The rise in approval since June has now clearly leveled off and is perhaps starting slightly down. Both the conservative blue trend estimate and the more sensitive red line agree on both the level of the trend and its recent changes.

After a flurry out both high and low outliers in recent weeks, the current crop of polls are generally falling within the 95% confidence interval around the trend. The last 6 polls are all quite close to the trend estimate.