Thursday, January 31, 2008

Florida Republican Poll Errors

Polling had a pretty good night in Florida on Tuesday. While early polls understated both McCain and Romney's vote, the polls got better as election day closed in, reflecting a (measured) upward trend in both candidates support. By the last day or two of polling most polls were within the ten-ring, and a number were close to the five-ring.

There was more disagreement among the polls as to who was ahead, and this included some late polls that put Romney ahead of McCain. However, most of these polls reflected a race "too-close-to-call", rather than egregious errors about the leader, with one large exception towards the lower right in the plot.

As we've seen all year, the polls got the vote for third and fourth place finishers very accurately, almost all within the five-ring.