No time for commentary this morning, so here is an explanation.
It is ironic and annoying that the most important date on the primary schedule is also the date with the fewest polls per state. Just as the campaigns are struggling to run 22 simultaneous campaigns, so pollsters and the media have invested little in comprehensive polling of the Super Tuesday states. Even large states such as New York and California have fewer than 10 polls since January 1, far fewer than we saw last week in Florida for example. As a result, we have many states with no data at all, preventing a comprehensive overview of the prospects for Tuesday. Even where we do have polls, we lack enough to consistently estimate the trend with data taken since Iowa. Where we can estimate trends, we've done so on the "regular" state pages at Pollster.com. You should go there for the best trend estimates we can manage with so little data.
The charts here are a way of seeing the entire set of Super Tuesday states (where we have polling) at a glance.
Rather than plot the usual trends with so few data points, each poll is a point and the darker the point the more recent the poll. The points are also scaled in size to be proportional to the number of delegates at stake in the state.
Instead of a trend estimate, this plot highlights the median of all post-Iowa polling in the state. The shading of points will then let your eye tell you whether there is a visible trend around that median. Be your own data analyst!
When more states become available, they'll be added to updated charts. If a state is missing, we don't have polling for it. (If you think we've missed a state with polling data, let us know!)
5 comments:
Hello
These graphs are great. They are incredibly informative. Congrats.
Can I make just one suggestion?
The sizes of the balls indicate the number of delegates. But another important piece of information is to know whether the number of the delegates is proportional to the votes or, instead, if the winner takes them all.
Anyway, many thanks.
LA-C
Maybe you could use squares in one case and circles in the other.
I love the design of these graphs!
The sense of the polls in favor of McCain, combined with the target graph you presented before showing McCain was under-predicted by the polls, seems to suggest Romney is toast on Super Tuesday (I don't know if, and by how much, he is ahead on delegates now).
luis--
Thanks-- that's a good suggestion about proportional vs winner take all. If I were not already using gray shades for time I'd do this with color.
Not sure I have the time, but if I do I'll see how it works.
Charles
Maybe you could use squares in one case and circles in the other.
yes i think too.
ilan
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