Monday, April 21, 2008

Day Before Pennsylvania Sensitivity Update

The Pennsylvania race has turned slightly toward Clinton over the weekend, with her lead now at an even 6 points in our standard trend estimate. If you believe in taking more chances with random noise, the sensitive estimator has a 6.4 point Clinton lead.

In the rush of new polling over the weekend, it is also good to check how much any of them may be affecting our estimates.

Dropping any single pollster makes only a bit of different to our estimates. The Clinton trend ranges from 48.5% to 49.6%, while Obama ranges from 42.6% to 43.5%. So dropping your least favorite pollster can, at most, account for the difference in a 5 point race and a 7 point one.

And note that we still have about 9 percent undecided. I wonder what they will do?