Friday, December 09, 2005

AP/Ipsos Poll Continues Bush Upturn

The Associated Press/Ipsos Poll conducted 12/5-7 adds further support for the upturn in approval of President Bush's job performance. In the poll, released today (12/9) the AP/Ipsos poll found 42% approval and 57% disapproval. That is up from 37% approval in the last AP/Ipsos poll of 11/7-9. The previous poll measured 61% disapproval.

My model now estimates a statistically significant gain in approval of +2.82% since the Veterans Day launch of a more aggressive response to White House critics. That gain has now more than made up for the post-Libby indictment drop of -1.91% and is approaching parity with pre-Katrina levels of approval. The Katrina effect is estimated at -1.33%, so the net loss over these events is now -1.33-1.91+2.82=-0.42%. There has been an additional decline due to the long term trend in approval, which has been reversed for the first time since January with the 9 most recent surveys.

While the White House cannot be pleased with 41% approval, the trend is clearly up for the first time since January, a clear win for the President.