Thursday, December 08, 2005

Bush Approval Upturn Reaches Statistical Significance

The addition of the CBS/New York Times poll, taken 12/2-6 has pushed the improvement in approval of President Bush into statistically significant territory, even accounting for variation in polling organizations. The CBS/NYT poll is the 8th taken since the more aggressive effort by the White House to defend it's Iraq policy and decision making.

The CBS/NYT poll registered an increase of 5% since 10/30-11/1, from 35% to 40% approval. Disapproval also dropped 4% from 57% to 53%.

With the new poll added to the data, the estimated Post-Veterans Day increase in approval of the president is now estimated at +2.07%, up from the previous estimate of +1.26%. Such a large change based on a single additional poll should provide some caution that these estimates are not yet stable. Nonetheless, the balance of the evidence now favors an interpretation that the Bush administration strategy and rhetoric is paying off in improved public approval.