Monday, April 10, 2006

ABC/WP: Approval at 38%

The ABC/Washington Post poll brings both bad and not-so-bad news to the White House. The new poll, taken April 6-9, finds approval of President Bush at 38% with 60% disapproving. That is a "new low" for the ABC/WP poll. (The story is here.) That's the bad news. This is consistent with recent polls from Fox, AP, and Time which have all registered further declines in the President's approval rating. Based on my local regression trend, approval has fallen from 42% in early January to just below 37% today.

The "not-so-bad" news is that this new data point remains above my linear trend even after adjusting for the ABC/WP house effect which tends to be about 1.5% more positive towards the president than the average poll. (See the discussion of house effects here. The graph itself is here.) This is still more evidence that while approval has continued down, the rate of decline is not as great as it was through February and early March. That may not be a very shiny silver lining for the White House, but it is all these data have to offer.

We also await new polls from CBS, Gallup, NBC and others to further clarify the present state of approval and the current trend.

UPDATE 4/11: The CBS and Gallup data are now in. See here.

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