Thursday, June 29, 2006

Bush approval continues up: Fox 41, Hotline 41

New polls by Fox News and by the Hotline both place approval of President Bush at 41%. The Fox poll was taken 6/27-28/06 and finds disapproval at 50%. The Hotline poll was taken 6/21-25/06 and puts disapproval at 56%. Both of these polls are a little over 3 points above the current trend estimate (the dark blue line) of 38.6% approval, a 4.6 point rise from the low of 34% on May 12.

The Hotline has run "hot" on Bush approval for a while now, but Fox is normally less than a percentage point above the average across all polls. So while the readings here are a tad higher than I would estimate, neither is outside the usual margin of my estimated trend. Certainly neither appear to be statistical "outliers".

There is also, for the first time, a hint that approval may be accelerating its upward trend. The blue trend line appears to be moving up a bit faster than in earlier estimates. The change is not large, but bears watching and a little more analysis.

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