Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Pew finds Bush approval at 36%

A new Pew Research Center poll taken 6/14-19/06 finds approval of President Bush to have risen 3 percentage points since the last Pew Poll, to 36%. Disapproval stands at 54% in the poll. This new data point is consistent with the continued upturn in approval. My local trend estimate is now 36.6% (the blue line in the figure), continuing the upward trend in approval.

The previous Pew poll, at 33%, was based on an unusually long field period, from 4/27-5/22, a period which includes the point at which approval appears to have started moving up after May 15. As a result, the previous poll mixes some data from the downward trend period with some from the new upward trend. If we take the midpoint of the field period as the effective data of the poll, that would suggest approval around 33% on May 9, just before approval started to rise. That is also consistent with my estimated trend about that time, if a point or two below the trend.

The previous positive trend in approval lasted for a little more than two and a half months from November 11 to the first of February, and marked about a four point upturn in my trend estimate. So far, approval has turned up about 2.5 percentage points in just over a month.

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