Friday, June 30, 2006

Third Poll Agrees: Approval at 41%, LA Times

The third poll in two days has checked in with an approval rating of 41%. The LA Times/Bloomberg poll has approval at 41%, disapproval at 56%. The 41% matches polls by Hotline and Fox that were released yesterday. The LATimes poll was conducted 6/24-27, while the Hotline was done 6/21-25 and Fox 6/27-28. Gallup and ABC/WP produced polls ending 6/25 with approval at 37% and 38% respectively.

The addition of the LATimes brings my estimated approval trend to 38.98%, exactly a 5 point gain from the low of 33.98% on May 12. President Bush's approval rating fell from a 2006 high of 42.34% on January 5, losing 8.36% over 128 days, a rate of one point each 15.3 days. From May 15 to June 28 he has gained one point each 9.0 days, an impressive rate of gain.

This sharp turnaround in approval makes forecasting approval in November even more uncertain that it was before. In May we faced an unprecedented low in approval going into a midterm election. The current approval remains low, but is far from the historically unprecedented lows that seemed possible a month and a half ago. The uncertainty remains, however, as to how long this upward trend will last, and then what? Beats me, but it is going to be fun to watch.

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