This figure is the current estimate of approval of President Bush during the second term. It is updated in place here for easy bookmarking or reference. See other blog entries with the label "presidential approval" for commentary related to this topic.
14 comments:
As your plot quite clearly shows, the broad trend of approval in the second term is headed toward 30% or less. The hiccups (which probably owe as much to bad polls as actual political events) merely distract from this inevitable result. Which leads to the interesting conclusion - voter confidence has been eroding at the same inexorable rate for more than two years now. Looked at from this perspective, the mid-term results could have been foretold.
I think the most likely explanation of the upward movement over the summer of last year, as well as the especially sharp decline in the months through May, is gasoline prices. For Bush's approval to be lower now than in April, with gas prices almost a dollar less, sends a strong message. If gas goes back up to $3, I would expect Bush's approval to really plummet.
As far as gas and approval go, Pollkatz seems to agree
But I think most scholars would disagree that presidential approval is entirely predicated on gas prices. Instead I think gas prices are part of consumer sentiments, which, according to the Macropartisanship authors, is one part of presidential approval--the others being historical events and administrative dummies.
Prof. Franklin, do you think that gas prices have short term or long term effects on presidential approval?
The rise in approval in the summer was actually just pre-election rallying of the Republican base.
Patrick Thompson
Hightstown NJ
In the Bush case, dont you think that gas prices are more fundamentally linked with the president in the public mind than with other presidencies? Isnt it possible that Bush is percieved as having direct power over that aspect of consumer culture and thus gains support by positive news in that arena?
I think we may all agree that if it were possible for president bush to run for a third term, he would be soundly defeated. However, is there any evidence in your polling studies that would estimate his approval rating if the war was NOT taken into consideration? He seems to be doing very well on many issues, but the war seems to have been his downfall?
Anson, I don't think it's possible to answer your question. It's almost like asking what Lincoln's popularity would be without the Civil War or Washington's without the Revolutionary War.
My name is Andrew Ian Murphy and I really hate Bush...if you were to weigh in my pure hatred of Bush, I think the polls would be much much lower than they are...and other than that, if we consider the Gas prices as critical, and maybe throw in good weather, then probably when the prices turn upward, which they surly will as we are now reentering new highs in oil prices, it ought to go down much lower than 30%...I say, 25% by January and falling fast.
"""My name is Andrew Ian Murphy and I really hate Bush..."""
My congratulations to you sir. Not many Americans are personally acquainted with Mr. Bush.
Tell me, what did he do to you to earn your "hatred" as a person? Did he, perchance kill your favorite kitten?
Now, maybe I have misread your comment and what you REALLY mean is that you do not approve of some of the ACTIONS that Mr. Bush has authorized/undertaken.
If so, then, maybe, it would be an asset to the clarity of your thoughts, actions, and communication if you could manage to separate the two.
You will have some difficulty in finding a more consistant critic of Mr. Bush's ACTIONS than I am - but I hold no personal animus towards him as a person. (Admittedly I probably wouldn't invite him to my house for supper [and if he did show up I'd be highly tempted to count the spoons before he left] - but that is only because I don't normally associate with ignorant, uneducated, duplicitous, blovating, bigoted, prevaricators on a social basis.) Your mileage may vary.
My name is Andrew Ian Murphy, and I wonder if the administration will be hampered in any effort to Bomb Iran as a result of extremly low poll numbers...
Gee, you know it seems to me that you are not updating this very often anymore...common, get on with it already! The last update was almost a month ago.
"""I wonder if the administration will be hampered in any effort to Bomb Iran as a result of extremly low poll numbers..."""
Probably not, Andrew. After all, Mr. Bush's final placement in the 2008 elections is assured.
The Universal Curmudgeon said...
"""I wonder if the administration will be hampered in any effort to Bomb Iran as a result of extremly low poll numbers..."""
Probably not, Andrew. After all, Mr. Bush's final placement in the 2008 elections is assured.
So what your saying is that you don't see him winning the election again in '08? I know he hasn't anounced that he will run, but isn't it a given that sitting presidents allways run again?
I wish you'd update your chart if only to give me the satisfaction of seeing my prediction, made some 18 months ago, come true!
"As your plot quite clearly shows, the broad trend of approval in the second term is headed toward 30% or less."
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