Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Bush Approval: LA Times 42%; NBC/WSJ 34%

Two more new polls. The LA Times (12/8-11) has approval at 42%, disapproval at 56% while the NBC/WSJ poll (12/8-11) puts approval at 34% and disapproval at 61%. The LA Times result is quite an outlier compared to other polling, and helps to raise my trend estimate to 34.5%.

About 90% of polls fall within +/- 4.4% of the trend estimate, and 95% fall within +/- 5.3%. At 7.5 points above the trend line, the LA Times poll is very far from what we would expect. If the LA Times poll were excluded from the trend calculation, the estimate would be 34.0%. Given the distance the LA Times is from the trend estimate, the 34% estimate is more plausible than 34.5%.

For a look at the LA Times trend in comparison to my trend estimate see our pollster comparison chart at here.