Saturday, December 23, 2006

Bush Approval:New polls at 35-36, Trend at 34.9%

Recent polls from Gallup (12/11-14, Approve 35%, Disapprove 61%), CNN/ORC (12/15-17, 36%-62%) and ARG (12/18-21, 35%-61%) have helped pull President Bush's approval estimate up to 34.9%. Several polls in early December had pushed the estimate below 34% but in light of subsequent polling that now seems to have overstated the early December decline. The last five polls have ranged from 34-36% providing some consistent support for an estimate around 35%.

The range of December results has been quite large, from 30% to 42%, though with half (8 of 15 polls) falling between 33% and 37% approval.

With the holidays upon us and a delay in the expected speech on Iraq policy and plans there is little reason to expect a sharp change in approval. What effect events and that Iraq speech may have will await the new year.