Monday, May 21, 2007

Pres08: A Sensitive Update for National Primary

No time to write about this just now. The red "sensitive" trend estimator mostly agrees with conservative and stable "old blue". But the Clinton blue line now shows a very slight downturn, reflecting the earlier decline (and current stability) of the red line. Obama continues to look nearly flat.

On the Republican side, Giuliani's recent slide remains very apparent, while McCain's recent modest upturn also continues. Note how bimodal Giuliani's estimates have become in the second graph below, emphasizing the difference between short and long term estimates. This makes it more and more likely we'll see a downturn of the blue line for Giuliani.

For a full explanation of the methods and the charts, see the earlier post:

A closer look at primary trends

Gotta run.