Monday, May 08, 2006

CNN puts Bush approval at 34%

A busy day for polling wraps up with a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll taken 5/5-7/06 that finds approval at 34% and disapproval at 58%, up 2 percentage points from the 4/21-23.

This new result does little to change the trend line estimate, which stands at 33.5%. That CNN comes in close to trend is interesting simply because this new partnership of CNN/ORC has no track record of presidential approval ratings (ORC is long established but hasn't released previous readings of presidential approval. This is only their second poll for CNN.) Their first poll at 32% was a bit below the then-current trend estimate of 35% approval. With this result we gain a little sense that CNN/ORC may not produce a strongly negative house effect (reading approval below the average of other survey organizations.) But with only two polls, the jury is definitely still out on that.

CNN continues to post the results only for opinion questions and not demographics, a practice that makes assessment of polls problematic and which lacks honesty and transparancy with readers. CNN should change that policy.

I've talked about the polling today in two other posts, here and here. Nothing in the CNN poll leads me to change what I said earlier today about the Gallup/USAToday or Fox and AP Polls and their implications for the administration. Follow the links for that story.

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