Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Bush Approval: Gallup at 39%

A new USAToday/Gallup poll finds approval at 39% with disapproval at 56%. The poll was conducted 9/7-10/06. This is a 3 point drop from Gallup's previous reading at 42% 8/18-20, but is in line to a series of six previous Gallup polls between 37% and 40% taken over the summer. Gallup concludes that approval has been stable for the last six or so polls.

With the addition of the Gallup data, my trend estimate stands at 39.8%. The upward trend that has developed since mid-August continues with the addition of this new poll.

The effect of President Bush's address to the nation on Monday night, 9/11, is yet to be addressed. In November 2005, approval increased after the White House began a month-long defense of it's policy in Iraq. The speech last night had many of the same elements, and fits well with the reported strategy of turning the "war on terror" into a positive for the fall campaign. Others argue that this well of support is beginning to run dry. Given that the current upturn (I called it a "surge" yesterday; one of my correspondent's argued for "creep". So let's try the more neutral "upturn" today) is well established prior to the speech, it will be important not to confound continuation of this increase with an effect of the speech itself. As with all analysis here, we'll have to see some 6-12 post-speech polls to get a decent handle on the effect that address may have had.

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