The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken 9/8-11/06 finds approval at 42%, with disapproval at 53%. This is the fourth poll since 8/27 to find approval at 41% or 42%. That makes four of the last eight polls at 41 or 42. The last eight approval ratings are: 39, 41, 38, 41, 37, 42, 39, 42.
With the latest addition, my trend estimate of approval is now at 40.6%, the first time the approval trend has topped 40% in some long while. The last reading over 40% was 2/16/06. This continues to be quite a sharp and substantial upturn.
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3 comments:
So we are seeing a trend upwards, but the obvious question is what is driving it? Are we merely seeing a rally round the flag effect for 9/11? (anything similar happen last year?) If so this effect will probably be quite fleeting. Or is it the president is now concentrating on terrorism and Osama and that meets with public approval? Or is it something else? Any hunches?
The price of gas is dropping.
The WSJ/NBC poll this time is RV and the Fox poll this time is LV. Does the aggregate model account for the difference? RV and more so LV have skewed R in the past compared to all adults.
I accept there's a slope change, but I'm not certain of the significance or the reason yet.
And yes, the price of gas is dropping, there's been the 9/11 aniversary and it's after labor day.
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