Thursday, September 28, 2006

Bush Approval: Thee polls agree on 42%

Three new polls all tell the same story today. Approval of President Bush stands at 42% in new Fox, Hotline and Zogby polls. And the current trend estimate is now 42.2% to boot.

The Fox poll was completed 9/26-27/06 among 900 likely voters, finding 54% disapproval. The Diageo/Hotline poll was done 9/24-26/06 interviewed 800 registered voters, and got disapproval at 56%. The Reuters/Zogby telephone (not internet) poll was done 9/22-25/06 among 1000 likely voters, and has 58% disapproval. All three polls also show increases over the past two or three polls.

This week's developments with former President Clinton's outburst on Fox, and his advice on Russert to Democrats about how to campaign on security, plus the leak and then release of the National Intelligence Estimate and surrounding debate, plus the White House response to both these, raises an interesting question of what comes next for Presidential approval. It is my impression that the White House has held the initiative in political debate over the past several weeks, with little effective Democratic response (this is just my impression-- I have no direct data on this). Certainly the observed data demonstrate that the White House has "won" the last 5 weeks. So where is the Democratic counter attack? Was Clinton attempting to lead his party in a new offensive? Or am I wrong and Democrats have in fact been actively responding to the President? If so, it hasn't worked very well, has it. Either way, now what?

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