Thursday, September 28, 2006

Generic Ballot: Three polls slightly below trend

Three new polls put the Democratic margin over Republicans in the generic ballot House vote at +10, +11 and +9. Those are slightly below the previous trend estimate of +11.4, and with these new polls added, the trend estimate now stands at +10.8. This still leaves a relatively flat trend following about a 1 point decline in the Dem margin. As I wrote here yesterday, the surge in support for President Bush (to 42.2% today, see here), appears not to be driving the generic ballot, at least not yet. The trend estimate has remained between +10 and +12 for the last 150 days or so, though with some small cyclical movement.

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