Friday, November 17, 2006

Bush Approval: 6 Post-Election polls

I'm finally back from nearly three weeks on the road. I'm one flight from home returning from Germany where my network connection seemed cursed at hotel after hotel after hotel. I'm very much looking forward to being home and getting to the backlog of post-election posts. Here is a downpayment.

President Bush has suffered a significant drop in approval since the mid-term election. Six post election polls bring the trend estimator down to 35.0%. And that despite one rather high reading at 41%. The huge question now is what happens to presidential approval over the next couple of months leading to the first meetings of the new congress. As it stands, approval is only 1.2 percentage points above the all time low of 33.8% on May 15, 2006. A new downward trend would threaten that record, adding a strongly negative public judgment of presidential performance to the rebuff of Republicans at the poll. A short term downward shock due to the election that quickly stabilizes would not be a strong endorsement but would certainly be better for the White House facing the new congress. How such a stabilization, or even a new upward trend, can be engineered is a problem for the President's political advisers.

Time to run for that last flight to Madison. More after a good night's sleep.