Tuesday, November 07, 2006
National Forces: In Flux at End
My estimate of net national forces is moving again, but is it signal or noise? We'll know after tonight. With the last polls, through 11/6, the Senate estimate has turned back up. I HASTEN to add that this estimator is sensitive to the last points of data and can take some time to make up its mind about the trend. We have no more time, so here is what we've got. Perhaps the Republican surge ended over the weekend, and perhaps the upturn here is just a fluke of the last polls that came in. I HAVE made this a pretty conservative estimator, not TOO sensitive to short term noise, but with no more data after today it will be hard to know about the last couple of days of th campaign. Perhaps I'll be able to do more on that after the election, when only academics like me care about such things.
The House does not show the same upturn, but does show a change in the slope of the decline, perhaps reflecting a similar upturn in pro-Dem forces, but with fewer House polls we can't detect it.
The Governors races (bottom figure) don't seem to show any change in national forces.
Make of this what you will. And have fun with election day and election night.