Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Estimated Bush Approval Reaches New Low

(Hint: Click graph, and click again for full resolution.)

The current estimated approval for President Bush (blue line) has reached a new low for his presidency. The blue trend line stands at 38.2% approval as of polls completed through March 5, 2006. The previous low for the trend line was 38.4% approval on November 10, 2005, just after the "Scooter" Libby indictment and the withdrawal of the Harriet Miers Supreme Court nomination. On November 11, the White House launched an aggressive and successful campaign to defend the President's policies. This resulted in a rise to 42.3% approval on January 9, 2006, a significant gain of 3.9% and the first rise in estimated approval since January of 2005. Since that time, however, the administration has lost all of the ground gained.

The downturn is apparent in most polls, as the "apples-to-apples" graph below shows. Not all polls have conducted surveys since mid-February when most recent low-readings have become apparent.

The White House's brief success at the end of 2005 has suffered a series of setbacks throughout January and February 2006. Some successes would, perhaps, be more valuable for reversing the current trend than a second rhetorical offensive might be. Unfortunately, legislative success becomes harder the lower the President's numbers fall, and policy success has largely eluded the White House in the second term.