Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Israeli Election Results, 94pct counted

The square symbol marks the number of mandates (seats) with 94% of the votes counted. The vertical lines show the range of exit poll results.

Overall the Israeli exit polls seem to have done a pretty good job. The Kadima vote appears, however, at the low end of exit poll estimates. Also, the exit polls seem to have exaggerated the strength of Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beitenu) which is receiving fewer mandates than predicted by the exits (but right on the pre-election polls).

These results may yet be altered by the Surplus Vote Agreements between parties that redistribute votes above a party's quota, though such alternations should be modest.