Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Israel Exit Poll Results

The Israeli exit polls find that Kadima and Likud fell well below the pre-election polls, while Labor and Israel Our Home did better. The poor Likud performance is especially stark.

The surprise in the exits is the strong performance of the Pensioners Party (Gil) with 6-8 seats.

If these results hold, Kadima plus Labor will hold less than 60 seats, requiring at least one and perhaps two additional parties to form a government. If the Pensioners end up with 6-8 seats they might be an attractive, if unexpected, partner.

REMEMBER: Exit polls have not always proven perfectly reliable! Interpret these results with caution.

Data: The range of exit poll results are from Channels 1, 2 and 10 plus the ynet.com exit poll. The pre-election polls estimate is MY estimate based on the local regression trend in previous posts here.