Approval of President Bush. Gray points are polls, blue line is my estimate of approval trend, using a local regression. The spread of gray around the line indicates how much variation there is across polls taken at the same time.
The vertical grid marks quarters, with January 1 in a darker shade. Tic marks on the horizontal axis are months.
This graph is at 768 x 768 resolution. Some readers may need to click or double click on the graph to see it at full resolution.
6 comments:
Is it possible for you to revise the graph of approval ratings (I'm thinking specifically of the G.W. Bush 2001-present graph) so that the Y-axis ranges from 0 to 100 points, rather than from 20 to 100? I think that would make accurate instant eyeballing & interpretation easier. Thanks!
Raj
To think that your sharply inclined blue trend line with three sharp spikes and three gentler bumps encapsulates a fascinating story of a country under attack, rallying round the flag, gradual disillusionment and buyer's remorse, savvy politics at the nick of time, the despair of Katrina and Iraq. Wish you could tease some of that out for us.
Anonymous,
This post is the place I update the entire trend whenever new polls come out. Call it the "reference section" of my site. I minimize commentary here because it is impossible to constantly revise the discussion.
If you click through to the Table of Contents (links to the right of each page) you will find an enormous amount of commentary on the approval series, updated with new items on each new poll. You can also use the archive links lower on the right to move through in chronological order.
So I'm doing what you ask, just not here.
Charles
I'm curious about the residuals. Are all polls included nonpartisan? If not, do partisan pollsters show systematic deviations from trend lines? Is it reasonable to assume even rate of release by party affiliation? What about color coding points by particular pollsters that may show systematic bias?
I doubt these things radically change general tends, but could still yield interesting patterns.
Are the data from which the graphic is constructed available?
I guess if Bush is lucky, there will be another 9/11, as that was the only way he got majority support. And, is certainly the only way an idiot man elected president could get such wide spread support.
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