Presidential Approval since Roosevelt. The blue vertical lines indicate midterm and presidential election dates.
This graph shows all presidential approval readings by the Gallup organization since Roosevelt. Gallup's long series and consistent question wording provide a useful historical comparison across Presidents. The data are freely available at the Roper Center web site at the University of Connecticut here.
The data are graphed here in exactly the same perspective across all presidents. This means that trends will look the same regardless of whether a president served two terms, one term or only part of a term. Visual comparisons of trends will be valid because of this constant perspective.
For example, compare the decline prior to the 1992 elections in President George H. W. Bush's approval with those of President George W. Bush. The elder Bush is a clear example of "free fall", the sharpest and largest approval drop since President Nixon's in 1973-74. President George W. Bush's decline more closely resembles the long-term decline of Jimmy Carter's approval than it does the free fall of either the elder President Bush or President Nixon.
Because the vertical scales are also equal, it is easy to compare the level of presidential approval across Presidents.
A more complete explanation of how the almost universal failure to keep perspective constant distorts presentation of polling results can be found here.
13 comments:
Why is FDR in the lower left corner and not the lower right?
Uhhh, because he was a lefty and Ike was a righty?? <;-)
I like having the most recent presidents first, so the layout is bottom-to-top and left-to-right in historical order. So the bottom row are earliest, in l2r order, then next row, etc.
Others think this dumb and would do it top-to-bottom and left-to-right in historical order. But not I.
oh wait, I see, every row is backwards from the way I keep thinking it should be.
I wanted everything to match the direction English-speakers normally read, so if you are going back in time by going down, you should also be going back in time by going to the right.
This is, I realize, not the deepest point one can make about this graph.
I find that these graphs provide an excellent perspective of the trends in approval. But, I have one suggestion. Why don't you add a horizontal line at 50 percent, or even a pair, one at 60 and one at 40? I know you don't want to clutter the graphs, but a horizontal reference at 50% may allow the reader to more clearly identify the periods when the president was unpopular.
Yes, that's a good point. The clutter is the main issue. I want the vertical lines to mark time and when I've tried some kind of horizontal grid I've thought it looked to cluttered. But it is a fair point that at least marking 50 and perhaps others would be helpful. I'll give it another try and see if I can get something that makes me happy. Thanks for the suggestion.
How about changing the color when approval drops below 50% (into the red, like budgeting)?
FDRs line seems awful short for a president that died in his fourth term.
Anonymous--
The FDR track is short for two reasons: The Gallup approval series didn't exist prior to 1937, and during the War relatively little polling was done. The data here are for FDR's second and third terms. No poll was taken in his fourth term prior to his death.
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Are there any statistics showing a mean approval rating for each past president. I'd be interested to know where Bush, W. (and all the others) fall in that ranking. Thanks.
This is a great visualization.
I just saw a headline, AP Poll: Public gives Congress low marks... have you done anything with opinions of Congress over time or approval of Congress compared to the President?
I agree with the other commenters; this is a great visualization. I'm a glutton for data, and a serious Tufte junkie, so a few suggestions:
- label each president with their political affiliation
- dispense with all the vertical lines, and all the horizontals except the 50%. Then label the peak and trough of each president's line with the actual value.
- consider labeling the first and last datapoint with the actual value as well
You should consider going minimalist and just show sparklines.
Finally, have you considered graphing this against baseline data, such as the inflation rate or GNP? I'm very curious how much the economy really does affect approval.
All of this is offered out of greed; what you've already provided is very, very tasty. Thanks.
I am new to this blog, but have been looking for stats on how approval ratings for a 2nd term president at the end of their term affects the outcome of his party to elect the next president. If you already have it please put up the link (though likely there are not enough times this scenario has occurred to make a decent prediction). Thanks! Great blog!!
Excellent Blog, the historical snapshot of Presidential approval is very interesting, with Bush Jnr at about the same levels as Nixon before he was impeached. Do you have any stats on preferences prior to elections?
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