Tuesday, November 08, 2005
California propositions 73 and 74 polling
Polling on props 73 and 74 show a wide spread with no clear leader for either proposition.
Prop 73, parental notification for minors seeking abortions, has produced widely divergent polling results with alternating polls finding substantial leads for both sides. The distribution of the spread shows a range of over +/- 15%, a huge range of uncertainty.
Prop 74, modifying tenure rules for public school teachers, has also produced substantial variation in results. Some of these are due to trends over the fall. Early polling produced a number of "yes"-leading results, but the most recent polling has found "no" leading by single digits.