Updated through polls completed 10/22/2006
2005-2006 estimate of approval of President Bush.
The blue line is the estimated support for the President at each point in time. The gray dots are the individual polls which vary randomly around the estimated support. Each poll will differ from the common trend due to sampling variation, question wording or order among other ideosyncratic factors. The estimated support is based on a local regression which can flexibly fit the trend in the polls.
7 comments:
Your series of graphs is an excellent example of what I should be learning to do on my own (I'm a pol. sci. graduate in France). Could you please post a quick methodology? Are you using R? SPSS? Excel? How do you aggregate data?
Thanks. I use R for all the figures. The raw data are entered into a spreadsheet (I use OpenOffice.) I convert the spreadsheet to Stata where I clean the data, checking for errors and creating some standard variables such as date of survey. Finally I read the Stata dataset into R, do any statistical analysis there and produce the graphs. Some are R "base" graphics and some use the Lattice library. See Robert Chung's presidential approval pages for more examples of nice R graphics using the presidential approval series.
R is open source. Google "CRAN" for the Comprehensive R Archive Network to download software, documentation and numerous manuals in multiple languages.
\chf
I think says it about as well as your excellent graph does:
http://www.prankcallsunlimited.com/toiletflush.wav
EXCELLENT graphic. I think it pretty much epitomizes the Bush presidency. As a proud graduate of the political science department at the world class UW I am pleased to pass on the briliant work of a good prof to show the world that the Badgers are tops in more ways than one. I have made my own post with a link to yours here.
Why the bump upwards in Dec 05 / Jan 06? Holiday good-will toward the President? Just curious.
Your last two posts, Bush 2005-6 and Bush 2001-6 are misdated, showing up as dated 11/12/05 - just about 11 months off.
Anonymous-- President Bush launched a series of speaches defending the Iraq war on Nov. 11, 2005. That continued through December, and his support remained at an improved level until after the state of the union speech at the tend of January.
Fatbear-- I update this item "in place" so the date you are seeing is the date of the original post. The date of the update is clearly displayed both in the graphic and in bold under the graphic.
Charles
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