Thursday, August 17, 2006

Bush Approval: Pew at 37%

A Pew poll conducted 8/9-13/06 finds approval of President Bush at 37%, with disapproval at 54%. That is a one point increase in approval from Pew's 7/6-19 reading, and a three point drop in disapproval. The addition of the Pew data barely changes my estimated trend, which now stands at 36.7%.

A series of polls which show shifts of 1-3 points, none of which are individually statistically significant, have cumulatively convinced my conservative trend estimator to decide that approval is now trending down, and this despite several recent polls in the 40% approval range. While it is still imprecisely estimated, the last several trend estimates have agreed that the high point of approval was around July 9. Since that time approval has trended down at a rate of one percentage point each 44.1 days. That is a slow rate compared to most of 2005 or to the Feb-May period of 2006. The all-time low trend estimate for President Bush is 33.98% approval on May 12, 2006.

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