Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Bush Approval: Stale Gallup at 37%

A surprisingly stale Gallup poll, completed 8/7-10/06 but only released today finds approval of President Bush at 37% with disapproval at 59%. While some interviews were completed after news of the British plane plot broke, this cannot be considered a clear reading of post-plot approval. It nonetheless falls between the CBS poll at 36% and Newsweek at 38%, both taken entirely after the news of the plot.

With the addition of this poll, my estimated trend stands at 37.2% approval. This additional poll also increases the support for a new downward trend in approval after weeks in which the estimator consistenly showed a small but positive trend. With seven or eight recent polls to support the trend estimate, I am now less concerned that this estimate is driven entirely by one or two low readings from Harris and the AP. Still... some caution is in order. If the AP poll at 33% is removed, the trend estimate would be 37.6 and the downward trend far less visible. So I remain a bit cautious about the downturn, but the evidence HAS clearly turned against the continued slow rise my model was estimating as of 2 weeks ago.

The Gallup poll has fluctuated between 37 and 40 for the last 5 polls. That leaves a lot to the imagination in deciding whether this represents a shift in trend or not. It could bounce back to 40 for the third time. So... I look forward to more post plot polls, and an end to August.

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